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Polymarket / On-chain

KCH123

A high-volume Polymarket sports bettor with a measurable edge in football and college basketball. We followed 78,148 trades across 1,119 markets and isolated where his $76.5M of notional volume actually pays - and where it bleeds.

Published Apr 11, 2026 ~14 min read By PR&R Research Wallet 0x6a72…3033ee Window Jan 1 - Mar 30, 2026
Total Wagered
$76.5M
78,148 trades
Overall Win Rate
60.9%
47,615 W / 30,533 L
Unique Markets
1,119
Sports + events
Active Days
73
Out of 89 calendar days
// 001 / Profile

Trader Profile

The shape of the wallet: who he is, how he trades, and where his edge actually lives.

kch123 is a high-volume Polymarket sports bettor operating from a single wallet. Over the 3-month observation period, he placed 78,148 trades across 1,119 distinct binary outcome markets, wagering a total of $76.5M in notional value.

He trades almost exclusively on the BUY side (99.9% of all trades), taking directional positions on outcomes he believes are mispriced. His trading style is characterized by concentrated bursts - he identifies a market he likes and then builds a position across many small fills rather than placing single large orders.

His strongest edge appears in the $0.40-$0.70 price range, where he consistently finds mispriced outcomes with enough payout to justify the risk. He is less effective at the extremes - below $0.20 (too speculative) and above $0.70 (wins often but payouts are too thin).

Trading Style

Side Preference99.9% BUY
Avg Trades/Day~1,070
ExecutionMany small fills per market
Sweet Spot$0.40-$0.70 entry price
Peak Hours12am-5am, 9am-3pm
Weak Hours4pm-6pm, 8pm, 10pm
Best CategoriesCFB, NFL, CBB
WeakestUFC, crypto, politics
// 002 / Categories

Performance by Category

ROI measured during kch123's profitable trading hours only. Football and college basketball carry the wallet.

CategoryROIGreen WeeksWin RateAssessment
CFB (College Football)+38.0%3/394.8%Elite
NFL+33.5%5/689.4%Elite
CBB (College Basketball)+22.5%9/1061.6%Strong
NHL+10.1%6/12-Modest
NBA-3.5%7/12-Unprofitable
UFC-63.3%1/2-Disastrous
Other (crypto, politics)-54.9%0/2-Avoid

kch123's edge is concentrated in football and college basketball. NFL and CFB show exceptional win rates above 89%. His NBA, UFC, and non-sports trades actively lose money.

// 003 / Cadence

Monthly Activity

Volume tracks the sports calendar. January was peak; February dropped off; March recovered with March Madness.

January 2026
47,600
trades  |  $55.0M wagered
February 2026
9,079
trades  |  $4.6M wagered
March 2026
21,469
trades  |  $16.9M wagered

January was by far his highest-volume month, driven by NFL playoffs and CFB bowl season. February was quiet - likely due to the NFL season ending. March picked up again with the CBB tournament and NHL.

// 004 / Weekly

Weekly Performance

Measured using kch123's filtered trade set (BUY only, $0.20-$0.70 price range, profitable hours, sports categories), scaled to a $1,000/day benchmark.

// 005 / Detail

Week-by-Week Breakdown

13 weeks of filtered trading. The wallet finished +$25,654 across 26,244 trades at a 77.7% win rate inside the strong-conditions filter.

WeekDatesDaysTradesWinsLossesWin %P/LCumul P/L
W01Jan 1-441,54685369355.2%+$902$902
W02Jan 5-1171,7301,21251870.1%+$4,714$5,616
W03Jan 12-1873,7462,80993775.0%+$1,419$7,036
W04Jan 19-2571,64179684548.5%+$486$7,522
W05Jan 27-Feb 1611,58811,40618298.4%+$13,761$21,283
W06Feb 2-851,07537170434.5%-$2,370$18,913
W07Feb 121110100%+$1,128$20,040
W09Feb 23-Mar 171,21480341166.1%+$3,494$23,535
W10Mar 2-8783237445845.0%+$469$24,004
W11Mar 9-1571,6441,22941574.8%-$2,278$21,726
W12Mar 16-22744617227438.6%+$1,588$23,315
W13Mar 23-29760920940034.3%+$272$23,586
W14Mar 301172164895.3%+$2,068$25,654
TOTAL7326,24420,3995,84577.7%+$25,654
// 006 / Price & Hour

Price Range & Hourly Analysis

Where on the order book and at what time of day kch123 finds his edge. The sweet-spot bands are visible in both views.

// 007 / Price

Win Rate by Entry Price

The deepest concentration of volume sits in the $0.40-$0.70 band, and the win rate confirms the edge lives there.

Price RangeTradesWinsWin %Assessment
$0.00 - $0.10650335.1%Highly speculative, almost always wrong
$0.10 - $0.201,12613311.8%Low conviction, poor hit rate
$0.20 - $0.303,27798730.1%Begins finding edge
$0.30 - $0.405,6221,37324.4%High volume, mixed results
$0.40 - $0.5028,54618,54265.0%Core sweet spot - highest volume
$0.50 - $0.6011,7275,92850.5%Solid at coinflip-range
$0.60 - $0.7012,1199,28976.6%Highest win rate in sweet spot
$0.70 - $0.807,6885,24768.2%Wins often but payout shrinks
$0.80 - $0.905,4004,20777.9%Payout too thin for losses
$0.90 - $1.001,9931,87594.1%Near-certainties, minimal upside
// 008 / Consistency

Rolling 15-Day Consistency

Filtered (strong conditions) vs. unfiltered cumulative P&L across every overlapping 15-day window. The gap is the edge.

63 out of 65 rolling 15-day windows were profitable when filtering to kch123's strong categories and hours (96.9%). Only the final two windows (late March) showed modest losses. Without filtering, only 62% of windows were profitable - confirming that kch123's edge is real but concentrated in specific conditions.
// 009 / Markets

Top Markets by Volume

Where the wallet's notional actually went. NFL spreads dominate; the Seahawks line alone took 10,000+ fills.

MarketTradesWagered
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)10,125$1.01M
Rams vs. Bears3,470$924K
Seahawks vs. Patriots2,480$745K
49ers vs. Seahawks1,641$337K
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes1,160$299K
Canadiens vs. Sabres964$96K
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets950$24K
Warriors vs. Pelicans871$85K
Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5850$76K
Flames vs. Blackhawks744$76K

NFL markets dominate his top positions. His largest single-market concentration was the Seahawks spread with over 10,000 fills.

// 010 / Findings

Key Findings

The three takeaways. What's real edge, what's a time-of-day artifact, and what to avoid.

Genuine Edge in Football

kch123 shows a clear, consistent edge in NFL and CFB markets. Win rates above 89% in these categories are not random over 3 months of data. His football reads are the foundation of his profitability.

Time-of-Day Matters

His performance collapses during 4pm-6pm and at 10pm, likely due to market efficiency increasing as more participants trade during prime evening hours. His edge is strongest in off-peak hours.

Category Blind Spots

NBA trades are slightly negative, UFC is deeply unprofitable (-63.3% ROI), and non-sports markets (crypto, politics) are disasters. His skill does not generalize outside football and basketball.

Summary kch123 is a high-volume directional sports bettor with a genuine, measurable edge in football and college basketball on Polymarket. His advantage is concentrated in specific price ranges ($0.20-$0.70), specific hours, and specific sports. Outside those conditions, his performance is average to poor. Over 3 months and 78,148 trades, the pattern is consistent enough to be considered a real skill rather than luck.
// 011 / More reports

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